The global diamond market was valued at $100.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $155.5 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual rate of 4.5% between 2024 and 2025 An oversupply of lab-grown diamonds and reduced luxury retail demand, along with global influences such as the G7 ban on Russian diamonds, have contributed to a reduction in diamond values. How is the diamond industry evolving? According to Paul Zimnisky, an independent diamond analyst and consultant, the natural diamond industry will experience a modest recovery in demand and prices this year . Or this modest recovery to occur, a more stable United States and an improvement in China are necessary, two factors that may be a possibility this year. Falling Chinese demand, increasing competition from lab-grown diamonds, and the legacy of pandemic lockdowns, when the number of weddings declined, left diamond miners with massive inventories. Will diamond prices shine again in 2025? The delicate balance of macroeconomic forces, evolving consumer preferences, and industry strategic initiatives will determine the fate of the diamond market this year. Until then, we analwill yze the latest developments influencing the industry.
Does De Beers need a change of strategy?
The diamond industry continues through difficult times, awaiting a much-needed stabilization. For decades, De Beers has controlled the industry, although even for the world’s largest diamond producer, things aren’t that easy. It is well known that, to control the global price of diamonds, the company holds ten annual meetings with select clients where uncut diamonds can be purchased through auctions with lots at fixed prices, as buyers cannot negotiate the price or choose specific stones within the package. These prices were set by De Beers and a system that worked for many years, until now. At the time, De Beers guaranteed profit margins of 25%, acting as a market protector, but the truth is that diamond prices eventually collapsed. In November of last year, during one of these auctions, the company attempted to sell rough diamonds at a 25% premium compared to the secondary market, and many customers refused to buy. De Beers reacted with a 10% to 15% price cut in December, but buyer distrust was already evident. Shortly after, the company decided to reduce the number of accredited buyers from 70 to 50, and they also had to commit to purchasing more gems. This tThecompany stated that it had taken various measures, including reducing production, combining sales, offering greater flexibility to buyers, and investing heavily in natural diamond marketing. A strategy that, it seems, has stopped working, and now, influenced by other factors, De Beers has excess inventory of $2 billion, even after reducing its mining production. De Beers redefined the jewelry industry and diamond consumption; perhaps it’s time for a new era.
A fourth quarter with operational performance
On February 6, De Beers released its fourth-quarter report, stating that mining operations demonstrated steady operating performance, albeit at lower production levels, as the business continued to reconfigure production in response to prevailing market conditions. Rough diamond production decreased 26% to 5.8 million carats, reflecting a proactive production response to the prolonged period of lower demand and hhigher-than-normalinventory levels in the midstream sector. By region, in Botswana, production decreased 31% to 4.2 million carats as a result of planned actions to reduce production at Jwaneng. Production in Namibia increased 3% to 0.6 million carats, reflecting planned higher-grade mining and improved recoveries at Namdeb, partially offset by intentionally lower production at Debmarine Namibia. In South Africa, production increased 27% to 0.6 million carats due to the Venetia underground mine and a slight improvement in processed ore grades. Production in Canada decreased by 43% to 0.5 million carats as a result of planned actions to address lower-grade ore. Full-year consolidated sales volumes decreased 28% year-over-year, and the average realized price increased 3% to $152/ct, reflecting a higher proportion of higher-value rough diamonds sold, partially offset by a 20% decrease in the average rough price index. At the same time, Anglo American, the parent company of De Beers, released its financial results, further reducing the ompany ‘s book value to $2.9 billion due to “prevailing diamond market conditions,” as stated; thus, De Beers is currently valued at $4.1 billion. Anglo American has lowered its 2025 production forecast for De Beers to between 20 and 23 million carats. Production could be steadily increased to between 28 and 31 million carats by 2025 the company responds to an expected market recovery, according to the financial report. De Beers has also just signed a 10-year agreement (although it could be extended for another five years) with Botswana, giving the government an increasing share of diamond sales through its oint venture with De Beers, Debswana Notably, Botswana is the largest diamond producer by value and second by volume behind Russia; diamonds account for around 80% of Botswana’s exports and a quarter of its GDP. The new agreement gives the Botswana government a 30% share of Debswana’s sales, with 25% for the first five years and a 40% share in the following five years.
China continues to fall
Meanwhile, China, the world’s second-largest diamond market, has seen its demand drop by 50% since before the pandemic, triggering a domino effect throughout the global supply chain. Chinese retailers are returning hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of unsold diamonds, flooding the wholesale market in India. “The market in China is dead,” says William Lamb, CEO of Lucara Diamond, in a Bloomberg interview. “I don’t see a recovery in the next few years.”
And what about lab-grown diamonds?
According to the Boston Consulting Group, synthetic diamond production has increased tenfold in six years. Wholesale prices have fallen by more than 90%, coming dangerously close to the cost of production. At the same time, there is a growing demand for lab-grown diamond jewelry worldwide, and perhaps competition among them is what has partly led to this destabilization.
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